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The ANC has resolved, once again, to try to fix local government ahead of the upcoming elections. And once again, it is overwhelmingly likely to fail, mainly through the actions of its own members. Crucially, it is still not clear who those who voted for the ANC will choose next, leading to a possibly fragmented picture in our major councils.
On Tuesday, the ANC issued a statement saying that it was “working tirelessly to ensure service delivery is accelerated and strengthened across all levels of the state”. It also referred to “progressive developments in key metros” including Ethekwini, Joburg and Tshwane.
What “progressive developments”?
The ANC appears to believe that Joburg is now on the right track. This is a city in which the potholes have won. And yet Mayor Dada Morero of the ANC has not yet appointed a member of the mayoral committee to oversee transport.
Also, as Daily Maverick’s Ferial Haffajee reported on Wednesday, the city is lying about the role of Helen Botes. First, it claimed she was no longer working for the city after she became a magnet for scandal.
But it has now been confirmed that she is, in fact, playing a role, now as a “consultant”.
Perhaps the ANC sees lying as “progressive”?
What is clear is that some in the ANC now realise just how badly the party is likely to do in next year’s elections (while the final date is determined by the Cogta Minister, the Constitution demands that the polls be held by January 2027).
The ANC’s National Executive Committee has also, again, demanded that “only ethical, capable and people-centred cadres are nominated as candidates” to be councillors.
Presumably, that means Malusi Gigaba would not qualify. Along with so many others, including those who keep cash in their sofas.
Old tricks
In the past, when the ANC has been under pressure and aware that it has to face angry voters, it has often gone through a public phase of self-flagellation.
It has released discussion documents and published conference resolutions condemning its failures and the corruption of its members.
It has always done this in broad terms, to avoid demanding personal accountability from anyone. But it tried to send a message that it had heard voters’ concerns and was acting.
This was one of the most effective electoral tricks it ever pulled.
Arguably, the party is trying this again through the National Dialogue.
It seems likely that some in the ANC are likely to try to use this process almost to campaign, to argue that, in fact, it is listening to people.
While it is putting more energy into this trick than ever before, it is also dealing with voters who are angrier than ever before.
One of the great failures of the ANC and the coalition it tries to dominate in national government is that it has been unable to communicate a coherent plan.
While it talks of “apex priorities” and growing the economy, it gives no concrete method to do this. Voters, hungry, poor and scared of our awful violence, may well see through this.
This might well inform the DA’s polling, which appears to suggest the ANC is falling below 20% in some metros, including Joburg.
While the ANC is governing as part of coalitions in many places, it may still be blamed by voters for how things have deteriorated. This is partly because of the habit of ANC leaders claiming that a coalition is following the ANC’s agenda, even when it is governing with other people.
This might suggest that many people will vote not in support of other parties, but to punish the ANC, which they hold responsible for their daily life experience.
Where to for voters?
While it may be easy to predict the ANC will lose votes, predicting where those votes will go is much more complex.
Last year’s election showed that the voter differential along racial lines had increased. While around 71% of white people voted, only around 55% of black people did (the numbers are not exact because you vote in secret).
This again shows how important turnout will be in places like Joburg.
The ANC’s main problem will be getting its supporters to actually go to the ballot box. DA supporters in places like Joburg might well feel almost driven to go and vote.
The last few elections have seen some ANC voters going to other, smaller parties.
This is why parties like Al Jama-ah have tended to campaign among the Muslim community and yet generally support ANC policies and coalitions.
But now, some of those smaller parties may in fact be punished for helping the ANC. Voters may feel these parties have enabled the decline of their cities.
There is a piece of evidence of this in Tshwane, where recent polling suggests ActionSA is now on only 2%, despite having one of its members as mayor there.
This might well be a reaction by voters who are angry that it is “propping up” the ANC in the city.
Other parties, like the Patriotic Alliance, which is clearly insisting that its 24-year-old councillor with no governance experience takes responsibility for Joburg’s potholes, might suffer too.
Meanwhile, other smaller parties that have had some influence in recent years may be falling apart because of their own dynamics.
UDM leader and Deputy Defence Minister Bantu Holomisa last week told a radio caller to “go to hell”.
The ATM, which was able to create a coherent and critical voice for the Ramaphosa administration through its former leader Vuyolwethu Zungula, may be about to lose its way. Its current leader is embroiled in factional fights within the church on which the party is based.
At the same time, the MK party, which had such a significant impact on last year’s elections, is more clearly a cult around one person, and has given no signs of being able to create a proper political party.
And Julius Malema’s EFF is now paying the price for shutting out senior leaders who have now left the party.
All this means that predictions are almost impossible.
The Zille factor
But it can probably be said that the local elections will be defined by these factors: low voter turnout, a massive decline for the ANC in most places, probably a stronger DA in Joburg and Tshwane and then perhaps two or three smaller parties who can catch the public imagination in some way.
This means that the ANC might well be completely out of government in metros where it leads coalitions now, and yet forming a new coalition might still be difficult.
There are other factors to consider.
Helen Zille’s presumed mayoral candidacy in Joburg might well suck in almost all national attention in the local elections to that race. And that might energise the DA in other places, while allowing the ANC to try to almost “re-racialise” the elections (even if this is likely to be less effective than in the past).
Our local elections have often pointed the way to the future of national politics.
The coalitions that took over metros in 2016 showed what was coming in 2024.
These local polls are likely to play that role again. And while the future is difficult to predict, these polls might make things slightly clearer.
Read the full article on the Daily Maverick here.